CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2014-12-19T00:27:00-CME-001)

Notes:
(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by Yaireska Collado)
(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from the excerpted Forecast Discussion below and http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction).
(Submitted Kp estimate is from the excerpted Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below).

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2014 Dec 19 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels due to an M6/2N (R2-moderate)
flare which occurred at 18/2158 UTC from Region 2241 (S09W00,
Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) and an M1/1n (R1-Minor) at 19/0944 UTC from Region
2242 (S18W23, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta).  An associated Type-II radio sweep
(estimated speed of 664 km/s) was observed associated with the M6 flare
as well as an asymmetric full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) first
observed in SOHO/LASCO C3 imagery at 19/0104 UTC.  There was a
concurrent filament eruption off the SE limb during this time, however
imagery gaps preclude the differentiation of the two events.  Continued
growth was observed in the intermediate areas of Regions 2241 and 2242
with very apparent E-W oriented deltas.  WSA/ENLIL modeling of the CME
shows a likely arrival around early to mid-day on 21 December.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
levels for the next three days (19-21 Dec) as Regions 2241 and 2242
continue to grow in areal coverage as well as maintain complex magnetic
structures. A chance also exists for an isolated X-class event
(R3-Strong) during the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued at nominal levels with solar wind speeds
around 330 to 420 km/s.  Total field was relatively steady near 7 nT
with the Bz component fluctuating between +/-7 nT.  Phi angle was mostly
positive (away).
 
.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions are expected to remain at nominal levels for the
majority of day one (19 Dec). Disturbed solar wind conditions are
anticipated beginning mid to late on day one (19 Dec) and early to
midday on day three (21 Dec) as a glancing blow from the 17 Dec CME
followed by the arrival of the 18 Dec CME are expected to impact the
geomagnetic field.  Solar wind speeds reaching 650-750 km/s are
estimated with the arrival of the 18 Dec CME.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly quiet conditions
until late on day one to early on day two (19-20 Dec) when the 17 Dec
CME is expected to impact the geomagnetic field.  Unsettled to active
conditions, with a chance for isolated minor storm periods (G1-Minor)
are expected through midday on day two.  By early to midday on day three
(21 Dec), the 18 Dec CME is expected to cause active to major storm
(G2-Moderate) conditions as it impacts the geomagnetic field.

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2014 Dec 19 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 19-Dec 21 2014 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 19-Dec 21 2014

            Dec 19     Dec 20     Dec 21
00-03UT        3          4          3     
03-06UT        2          4          2     
06-09UT        2          3          2     
09-12UT        2          3          4     
12-15UT        2          2          6 (G2)
15-18UT        2          2          5 (G1)
18-21UT        2          2          4     
21-00UT        4          2          4     

Rationale: There is a chance for G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storm
early on 20 Dec associated with the anticipated arrival of the 17 Dec
CME.  G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions are expected
on day three (21 Dec) with the arrival of the 18 Dec CME associated with
an M6/2n flare.

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